How to Invest in Global Equity Markets - Raunak Onkar

Raunak Onkar, Head of Research, PPFAS Mutual Fund presented a fantastic Talk on Global Equities (Beginners Guide to Global equities) at indian investing conclave. We personally believe Raunak is one of the best analyst in the country to learn everything about investing.

Please find our key notes on the presentation below (Emphasis Ours)

Why does it matter?

· Opportunity size: The total market cap of Indian companies (equities) comes to be around 1.2 trillion dollars but the global equities are valued at around 80 trillion dollars which demonstrates the size of opportunity. The Market value of the equities listed in United States comes to be around 30 trillion dollars which is approximately 40% of the global equities whereas India just comprises of 2% of the overall global market cap.

· Diversification: Diversification is not only needed in terms of mixing up asset classes; like for example diversifying a portfolio through investing in stocks and bonds. Diversification is also needed to reduce country specific risk. Country specific risk means that investing in the companies denominated in single currency.

The question that we need to ask is that wouldn’t it get more risky if the currency itself comes under a lot of risk. Let’s take a situation wherein due to crises the domestic currency is being depreciated in the market and because of that people are taking away their investments from the country; even though the companies might be performing well negative perception of the country itself can make the climate of investment a little awry. It is important to diversify when the country is going through some short term turmoil.

The second crucial point he talks about is capital allocation in which he says that when the country doesn’t present lucrative opportunities you can either keep a lot of cash or invest in alternative assets or invest in global markets.

The third point he brings out in the diversification is cost of capital. The cost of capital is seen differently in India when there are no liquid bond markets and most of the borrowings happen through bank and in the case of developed markets we see huge liquid markets so the cost of capital is in a way determined by the market.

Another crucial point he mentions related to the cost of capital is that sometimes an Indian company which is competing in a global market is not able to get access to funds in a cheaper rate of interest but the competitor due to its global reach is able to access the funds in a much more cheaper way; in such a situation it pays to have the avenues open in terms of global investments.

Another point he mentions is related to availability of capital. In the case of developed markets we see that there are a lot of avenues through which you can raise funds like venture capital, angel investing, equities, bonds, etc.

When the system of investment is very strong, the capital is a lot more accessible as compared to developing markets. He also gives some insight with respect to the legal system. He says the legal system in America is far more efficient than the legal system in India which allows America to be more predictable than India. He also says that the bankruptcy code brings some promise with respect to the recovery of businesses and also closure of the businesses more efficiently. The Bankruptcy code and related procedures have always been smoother in the developed world.

· Global Supply Chains: One of the things he mentions in the talk is that the supply chain is integrated. He gives the example of a smart phone which on the look of it appears to be a very simple device but the process involved in the making of a smart-phone is very complex and tough to understand. The designing of the smart phones might be happening in USA, the manufacturing might be happening in China, the assembling might be happening in India. If you are only a domestic investor you might not be able to take advantage of the tailwinds on the global. Because of the global supply chain the usage is not matching with Investments which means that you are not totally being able to take part in the global tailwinds.

He starts giving examples of the sectors which are considered to be a part of global supply chain such as IT services & Outsourcing, Textiles and Apparels, Pharmaceuticals (India posses a larger share in generic markets), Medical Equipment (India still a bigger importer of medical equipment), Auto & Auto Ancillary (Huge Importer of Auto Ancillary), High Tech Engineering, electronics and consumer durable, Chemicals and Oil related, etc. For the IT services he says that on the global scale India only contributes to around 11 to 12%.

· Unique Businesses: He talks about businesses ranging from Software products & Services (He says that whenever we think of software products it is very difficult to pen-down a unique Indian name that was responsible for innovation, software is a 10 trillion dollar industry and most of the development owes itself to the west), Social Media & Digital Advertising (We automatically think of Facebook and Instagram whenever we think of social media), Innovator Pharmaceuticals & Medical Devices (The west is known for its cutting edge research with respect to new drugs.)

The patented drugs are automatically priced at a price higher than the generic drugs. The generic drugs come into use after the patent is expired; India is known for generics and not innovative drugs. The Indian companies are able to earn gross margins of around 50 to 70% even though they are thoroughly generic businesses).

Electronics Hardware & Component Manufacturers (He talks about how because of the nature of supply chain itself the companies are able to take the benefit of their innovation. India contributes nothing to the supply chain under this domain but ends up being a consumer for the same).

E-commerce & Platform Services (All the companies whether UBER or Amazon are listed outside India but we Indians still end up being the consumers of the product), Payment Processing & Technology Services, Holding Companies of Iconic Brands (Whenever we talk of brands like Zara and Louis Vitton we seldom know the companies which these brands belong to. Most of us would have seldom heard of the name Inditex which is the holding company of the brand named Zara). The key crux behind this point is that we end up being the users of the businesses but are not able to take part in the investment portfolios because the companies are not listed here.

· Different Operating styles: In this point the speaker talks about how the business biographies helped him in understanding various cultures and how the companies around the world had different ways of operating. He states that in India too he is seeing a rising trend in the supply of Indian Biographies which discloses a lot about a unique Indian Mode of doing a business. He talks about examples like Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix, FB, Google, Shopify and many more which enable him to understand the entrepreneurial cultures more deeply.

He talks about a crucial point with respect to availability of capital and Management support. In the developed markets we usually see that the venture capital fund not only provide with financial assistance but also management assistance. The very structure to help a budding entrepreneur grow is very strong in the United States of America.

He talks about capital allocation trends in which he says that normally in the developed world when the growth from one’s own business gets stagnated firms start to take the route of acquisition in which either they will try to strengthen the business they are currently in or they will enter into a totally new sector.

In India he says historically when the firms had huge piles of cash either they will let it be in the balance sheet or they will give dividends out of that cash. So as the firms kept on growing they will keep on increasing the Dividend payout ratio.

He talks about how in the developed markets you can raise funds at a very low rate of interest which gives huge advantages in terms of cost of capital.

He also says that when companies understand what shareholder wants sometimes they take a short cut to fulfil that expectations. So the company employs what we call financial engineering techniques to bolster the revenue or cut the costs. We see that as the stock markets mature there is a development of more stringent accounting disclosures and policies. We have seen India improve considerably since last two years in terms of financial disclosures. We have seen the growing acceptance of IFRS among countries in order to bolster stringent accounting policies.

· Valuation Differentials: Another key component behind understanding global equities is valuation differentials. We see through the frameworks provided by the speaker and understand the broader aspects of Global equities. He mentions some points related to Relative sector valuations, Businesses in the same industry, Qualitative and Quantitative differences, Parent Company Vs Subsidiaries (There are examples like Nestle which have benefited a lot from its subsidiaries and there are numerous other companies too which have been responsible for the wealth creation of parent company’s shareholders), Listed Abroad but operates here, Listed Abroad but Unlisted here.

Fertile Ground: Knowing Where to Look

Now we know that after going through all the above pointers that how important it is to look at Global equities in order to understand and take benefit of all the whole global supply chain. But where do we look for in order to gain a huge insight into Global equities? The answer lies in Developed Markets.

Developed markets have a long recorded history of business innovations, failures and successes of a particular business, cultural issues with a particular business, etc. The biggest advantage with the Developed market equities is that they have a proven history of cycles and how the companies behaved in that cycle. Another very important point to look for is how well regulated are the markets. The developed markets have a key characteristic of caring for minority shareholders. The state which considers shareholder first is bound to build in a lot of such regulatory policies.

Differences in Accounting Standards (Measure what matters)

Companies all over the world are starting to accept IFRS (International Financing Reporting Standards); which means that there will be some accounting commonality among each firm through which performance can be measured.

Notes to accounts have become really important. Seldom do most of the investors read notes to accounts and end up investing very badly. Key information can be found in the notes of accounts.

The Speaker gives us an important lesson through BYOF (Bring your own filter). The Bring your own filter means that each investor should develop his/her own screening process to determine which companies to invest or not to invest.

It is very important to understand the off-balance sheet items. Sometimes the relevant line items like contingent liabilities or a Lease does not get shown in the balance sheet. That’s why it is very important to not only screen the financial statements but also try looking at off balance sheet or secretary audit reports.

It is very important to understand the treatment of Intangibles. When there is a merger or acquisition the role of goodwill becomes very important. A company can manipulate its market value through a gimmick in the goodwill. If after an acquisition I value goodwill at a very unreasonable valuation it will unnecessary inflate my balance sheet and give the illusion of worthy asset base.

How to find Information (Search, Filings, Commentary, Media, Books….

a) Power of simple Google search

b) Company filings-Investor Relations

c) Commentary-Management comments

d) Articles, Videos, Documentaries, Podcasts, Blogs

e) Books-Business/People

f) Peers

Regulatory Filings (Locate the Best sources)

a) Aggregators (Bloomberg, Refinitv, Rocket Financial, TIKR, Koyfin…)

b) Return to the source- Edgar by SEC for US listed companies (Elecronic data gathering analysis & Retrieval)

c) BSE/NSE Announcements

d) Euronext, DAX, LSE, SGX, TYO, TSE & many more

e) ADR/GDR, OTC stocks

f) Company Websites

Regulatory Filings (What is What in US listed Securities)

a) Google this- “Using EDGAR to research investments”

b) Form Types- 10K, 10Q,8K, 3, 4, 5, 13F, S1, 20F, F1

c) XBRL Structured Data (for the tech savvy) – XBRL.US

d) Company websites

e) Bamsec for transcripts (premium)

f) Seeking Alpha (Freemium)

g) Many Blogs & Substacks

h) US based Finance twitter accounts

Watch Full: Epsiode 19 : https://indianinvestingconclave.com/alpha_series